Text without Context is Pretext

The attack on Iran is highly likely to affect your bottom line if your supply chain is directly or indirectly impacted. Direct effects would be your shipments traveling through the Strait of Hormuz being waylaid, delayed, or lost. Indirect effects could be your supplier running out of lubricants, your supplier shifting customers due to decreased faith in the American Market or changed policies that affect your supplies or market. Additionally, bottom lines are likely to be impacted by short-term liquidity challenges that are likely to materialize, both in terms of access to and cost of short-term cash requirements. Dampened economic growth will also impact a company’s forecasts and performance. 

There are several ways you can determine if your ROI will be impacted by the attack on Iran. First is knowing your supply chain. You can analyze your suppliers, their routes, and their personnel. This is for both your direct suppliers and for those who supply them with materials to make the component they provide your organization. Do not forget to add cultural nuances into this consideration of supplier: if you supplier is a member of a “face saving culture” or one who has been struggling with U.S. policies, it is likely they may be considering alternative markets. Second, you can look at your market to determine the stability of your product. Is your market sold in the U.S. or overseas? If overseas, what are the general atmospherics of that country to U.S. produced goods? Third, know the security of your host servers and be aware of those who are hosted by others along your supply chain. The high likelihood of a cyber-incident after a military strike re-enforces the need-to-know which server and where, the security, and even the locality of those servers. Fourth, you could make this easier and call the team at Ferndon (literally: team@ferndon.com) who can help break this down with the very detailed nuances at each point with a third party perspective (and an NDA). 

It already is, for all intents and purposes. As it slowly it re-opens, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to experience slowed down and/or more expensive traffic due to threats of violence. The risk for ships going through a conflict zone increases with threats of terrorist cell activity around the ports, missiles being fired in the area, and piracy. Given the increased risk, shipments may be consolidated, delayed until the conflict cools, be required to pay outrageous insurance fees, or have additional security hired. Materials traveling through the Strait of Hormuz – such as petroleum products – have both redundancies and surpluses along the supply chain. However, if the conflict drags on, these products (plastics, lubricants, petroleum) will likely decrease in availability. 

We do not expect the U.S. to be crippled by retaliatory attacks. There may be critical infrastructure attacks, but widespread outages and disruptions are very unlikely in the U.S. at this time. We have a complex regulatory environment for electrical generation and distribution as well as disparity between grids and power distribution hubs. It is likely that even if there are blackouts in any given area over the next few weeks, few if any people will actually know the root cause. So yes, while there will be IRGC/Quds-sponsored cyber-attacks, they will likely come from 19–25-year-olds with limited resources and access hitting targets of opportunity. This does not mean they will not hit a bank or two or take an ATM offline, etc. But widespread outages are unlikely. Will they disrupt GPS systems and comms systems in the Middle East? Absolutely (they already are). But will they take the U.S. internet offline? Highly unlikely. The U.S. doesn’t have single points of national failure. The biggest threat from cyber or kinetic attacks will be in the Middle East – any U.S. interests there, inclusive of supply chain sourcing, are at highest levels of risk.

Very unlikely. The return on investment would be atrocious for the USA: Iran is a strong, proud, educated, technologically advanced country. Any invasion of Iran would galvanize the population against us. And it would not be pretty. 

The duration of this conflict is in the air right now. There is an initial power vacuum if the reports of the Ayatollah’s demise are accurate. The conflict could be resolved soon or be dragged out. If concerned about “return to normal operations” and a stable supply chain and market, the question is not necessarily how long *this* conflict will last. Another and maybe better question would be: how significant will the after-effects impact my ROI? Given the increasing concern about reliability of the U.S. as a trading partner and wide-spread concern of the internal stability of the U.S., it is very likely that multiple nodes within the supply chain are intentionally diversifying their market to reduce dependence on U.S. markets. This could have significant and long-lasting effects. 

Absolutely not. We might be speaking with our customers about what is likely coming; however, Ferndon Consulting values our brothers and sisters in uniform. We will not ever make a statement or share information that could create a negative impact on our military. To those old-school readers who understand this: we have our Purple Dragon OPSEC signs in the office. 

An attack on the energy sector that powers essentials in a high-density urban environment with a current low trust in government during a significant weather event. Or an attack on a dam that has significant industrial (chemical spills), population centers, and even biological research labs downstream in  state where the response force is already activated for other missions.

AI can help with your planning, especially in predictable environments. When time is of the essence, very few AI programs can integrate nuanced and rapidly changing dynamics for rapid responses. AI methodically learns and is strongest on more static questions with established data points. Future projections are feasible but often insufficiently nuanced with international perspectives to plot likely or feasible behaviors trans-cultural and trans-societal behavior. Additionally, material needs to be added to the internet for the AI to read, and that materially should be formatted in a manner where the AI is able to read, analyze, and then integrate: much of our writing is not formatted for AI search engine optimization or is re-written for this optimization by another AI. It is strongly advised to work closely with cross-functional SMEs, well-versed in geopolitics and understanding of how to read what is happening and, within this dynamic context, the likely future evolutions.  

Cross-functional fusion intelligence is exceptionally helpful in navigating dynamic geopolitical change. As the internet waits for information, processes that information, and then provides you input, the SMEs at Ferndon can give you direct and timely analysis that is more nuanced and refined than that which would be consolidated by AI. If you’re looking for an “azimuth check” or contextual development, we are happy to talk, receive your concerns, provide context, and support your need. We do recommend aligning a fractional arrangement or subscription to products: we value trust and want you to have the best information available with a positive relationship with the provider. 

First, talk to us and determine whether we should collaborate: that’s free. We care about your trust, and we are happy to sign an NDA at any point in the proceedings. When you come to the initial consultation, we ask that you bring your situation, your needs, your end-state, your concerns, and your restrictions. We can identify initial considerations and likelihood that we can help you – and bracket the probable extent to which we can assist. If you wish to proceed, we would then come up with a plan: if immediate support (such as mitigating risk during this current evolving situation in the Middle East), we are happy to align a contract that includes that immediate support and, as we work together, build future plans and follow-on contracts. If you’re looking for more fractional geopolitical support, building towards the future, we would be happy to propose a pilot or subscription option. 

Our newsletter and many of our general updates are free: at the bottom of this page, and on our home page (https://ferndon.com), there is a place to sign-up for our newsletter. We often also follow up with a post on LinkedIn. Easy peasy. Or you can set up fractional, subscription, or other support that is specific to your situation: if a significant situation emerges, we reach out directly to you and are available, personally, to help navigate future situations.